The evolution of new construction in Portugal: modest growth in a market with structural supply shortages

The idea that new construction is gaining relevance in the Portuguese real estate market is, to some extent, true — but it requires careful interpretation.

According to data from Imovirtual, the share of newly built properties increased from 4.6% to 5.0% between March 2025 and March 2026. Although this may suggest a positive trend, in practice it represents only a 0.4 percentage point increase. In other words, new construction still accounts for a relatively small portion of total available supply.

This point is essential: growth exists, but it is limited and insufficient to address the main challenge of the housing market in Portugal — the shortage of supply.

In terms of pricing, the analysis aligns with market reality. New properties remain clearly positioned above existing ones, reflecting construction costs, energy efficiency requirements, and often more premium locations. Nevertheless, both segments show similar price growth, indicating that demand pressure continues to affect the market across the board.

Another relevant aspect is the strong geographical concentration of new construction in the metropolitan areas of Lisbon and Porto. These regions continue to absorb the majority of new developments, driven by demand and the economic viability of real estate projects. However, this centralization contributes to territorial imbalances and limits the ability to respond to housing needs in other regions of the country.

Regarding property types, there is a clear predominance of larger units, particularly three- and four-bedroom properties (T3 and T4). This trend reflects a developer strategy focused on higher-income segments, reinforcing the positioning of new construction at higher price levels and reducing its accessibility for a significant portion of demand.

However, it is important to consider some limitations when interpreting these data. As they are based on listings from real estate portals, they do not necessarily represent the total market universe or the actual volume of transactions. Platforms such as Idealista and Imovirtual are relevant indicators of trends but may include sampling biases.

Additionally, the increase in the relative share of new construction may not reflect significant growth in absolute volume and could also result from adjustments in the existing housing segment. This distinction is important to avoid overly optimistic interpretations.

In summary, new construction is indeed gaining some weight in the Portuguese real estate market, but it remains far from having the scale needed to meet structural housing demands. It continues to be concentrated in major urban areas, positioned in higher price segments, and has a limited impact on addressing the supply shortage.

The conclusion is clear: despite signs of growth, new construction remains insufficient to balance a market characterized by a structural shortage of housing.